Rising home prices and mortgage rates are keeping the lock-in effect alive during the early days of the 2025 housing market. Despite increased levels of for-sale inventory, a significant share of homeowners are content to stay put in their homes for the long haul.
This finding comes from a report released by Seattle-based brokerage Redfin on Tuesday. An underlying survey conducted in September 2024 by market research provider Ipsos included 1,802 respondents between 18 and 65 years old.
According to the report, 34% of U.S. homeowners will never sell their homes, while 27% plan to wait at least 10 years before breaking out the for-sale sign. Another 24% plan to sell in five to 10 years. Only 8% plan to sell in three to five years, while only 7% plan to sell in the next three years.
Older generations dominate the share of homeowners who will never sell their homes. Baby boomers — respondents between the ages of 60 and 79 — accounted for 43% of owners who say they’ll never sell. Generation X followed behind at 34%, while millennials and Generation Z owners held a combined share of 28%.
Redfin said that would-be sellers are only considering a move due to necessity and major life events. Wanting a bigger house or more yard space is not enough to push sellers into the market.
“The just-because movers — those who just want a bigger or nicer house — are staying put, mostly because it’s so expensive to buy a new house,” Marije Kruythoff, a Los Angeles-based Redfin Premier agent, said in the report.
“The people who are selling are doing so because they need to. Either they’re relocating to a different part of the country, or they’re moving due to a major life event like having a baby or taking a new job on the opposite side of the city.”
Homeowners who are choosing to stay put are doing so for a variety of reasons, ranging from current home values to market affordability. Redfin said that 39% won’t sell because they’ve nearly paid off their homes, which is a consistent trend among older respondents with longer homeownership tenures.
Another 37% simply like their homes and see no reason to move. Following that, 30% want to avoid high prices and 18% want to keep their low mortgage rates. For context, 85% of homeowners enjoy mortgages with interest rates below 6%, according to Redfin.
This trend somewhat explains why listings have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. A Redfin report in September found that only 25 in every 1,000 existing homes (or 2.5%) changed hands in the first eight months of 2024 — the lowest turnover rate in decades. By comparison, 40 in every 1,000 homes were sold during the pandemic-driven sales boom of 2021. That represents a 37.5% difference in home sales.
There is a slight glimmer of hope for homebuyers looking for existing listings this year. Another Redfin report highlighted a 12% annualized increase in active listings during the four-week period ending Dec. 22.
Still, existing-home sales have a long way to go before they return to pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage rates are still above 7%, according to data from HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center. The average home price also rose 5.4% year over year in November, according to Redfin data.
As the housing market takes shape based on new policies enacted by the incoming Trump administration, homebuyers and housing professionals alike will need to keep a watchful eye for existing inventory growth — or lack thereof.
