A new report has identified areas of Geelong predicted to outperform amid expectations an interest-rate cut would provide an immediate boost to homebuyer demand in mid-2025.
The SQM Research Boom or Bust Report predicts continued moderate falls to house prices across Melbourne of between 1 and 5 per cent in 2025 amid rising population growth and an ongoing shortage of new dwellings.
The report shows mixed results across the Geelong region, though locality ratings rose in more postcodes than declined.
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The SQM Research Boom or Bust report predicted an immediate boost to buyer demand if interest rates are cut by mid 2025.
The three-bedroom house at 19 Pickworth Drive, Leopold, is selling with price hopes from $599,000 to $649,000.
The report showed Leopold and the 3216 postcode for Belmont, Grovedale, Highton, Marshall and Wandana Heights offered the best potential to outperform all other localities over the medium term.
They scored ratings above 3.7 out of five stars in a metric that combines demographics, suburb price volatility, supply, vacancy rates, mortgage stress, long term price performance and household income growth.
Median house prices fell slightly over the past 12 months to $676,300 at Leopold and $731,000 across 3216 postcode, although a tighter rental vacancy rate saw improving returns in Leopold.
The best rental returns were seen in Corio and Norlane and the 3219 postcode for the eastern suburbs of East Geelong, Newcomb, Whittington and St Albans Park, that both achieved ratings above 3.6 out of five.
The four-bedroom house at 14 Werner Ave, Marshall, is selling with price hopes from $669,000 to $719,000.
The three-bedroom house at 2 Miller St, Newcomb, is selling with price hopes with $599,000 to $658,000.
The rental vacancy rate remains locked at .8 per cent in the outer northern suburbs – the worst for renters in Geelong, while the median house price rose slightly to $478,000.
Middle ring northern suburbs across the 3215 postcode including North Geelong, Hamlyn Heights, Bell Park and Bell Post Hill also saw a median price rise to $665,000.
While the rating for Lara dipped slightly, the report showed a rising performance in the 3215 postcode, central Geelong and Newtown and the 3218 postcode for Geelong West, Herne Hill and Manifold Heights.
SQM Research has forecast an interest-rate cut of between .25 per cent to .5 per cent over mid-2025 based on the view that inflation will continue to moderate and the overall economy will continue to record below trend growth.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said if interest rates are cut as forecast, this event would immediately stimulate homebuyer demand and limit the year-on-year dwelling prices falls recorded for our two largest capital cities.
The three-bedroom house on a more than 700sq m corner block at 131 Ballarat Rd, Bell Park sold for $700,000.
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SQM Research director Louis Christopher tips interest rates to fall by mid 2025.
“Current interest rate settings are biting the community more in the cities which on our measurements, are in overvalued territory or are experiencing slower economic growth,” Mr Christopher said.
“However, once interest rate cuts do occur, we are expecting a speedy bounce in demand for Sydney and Melbourne in particular, which both are still experiencing underlying housing shortage relative to the strong population growth rates.
“This may well mean there is a good window for buyers at this time for our two largest capital cities.”
