Geelong home values were off to a slow start in 2025 as the glut of homes fuelled by rising property taxes saw the median home price dip in January.
The city’s median house price dropped 1.3 per cent to $756,000 over three months as a decline in January ended several months of positive growth.
Unit values rose over the quarter to $521,000.
The overall decline follows Melbourne and regional Victoria, which also saw values retreat in January.
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Geelong home values dipped in January, new PropTrack data shows.
The median house value in Geelong is 4.7 per cent lower than the same time last year as PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said Victoria’s property market was weaker as elevated stock levels gave buyers more choice and less reason to transact urgently.
“It’s likely accumulated listings are driving some of that weakness,” Mr Creagh said.
“We know that buyers in Victoria have had a lot more choice relative to other states and relative to historically has been the case.
“Part of it is slightly weaker economic conditions and also changes to property taxes that have led more investors selling as a result.”
Victoria’s success at building more homes was also helping to keep a lid on price growth, she said.
There are 3763 residential properties listed for sale in the Geelong region now, according to PropTrack data, 16 per cent more than the same time last year, and double the figure reported five years ago.
PropTrack’s January days on market data shows the average house takes 48 days to sell. Two years ago it was 35 days.
PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh expects the downward trend to be short lived ahead of predicted interest rate cuts.
All eyes will be on Tuesday’s Reserve Bank board meeting, where it’s widely tipped interest rates will be cut after inflation data moderated more quickly than expected over the holiday period.
“I’d expect these home price falls now to be relatively short lived, particularly given the fact that rate cuts are on the horizon,” Ms Creagh said.
“Interest rates falling will boost borrowing capacities and slightly improve affordability,” Ms Creagh said.
“It’s likely to give a confidence of boost as well and drive that reversal in home price growth.”
Buxton director Ben Riddle said the property market was so far “out of whack” high stock levels and low buyer participation due to the unprecedented amount of manipulation from government decisions, such as raising land taxes and policies targeting property ownership.
Armstrong Creek is Geelong’s biggest housing market with almost 300 homes listed for sale. The four-bedroom house at 9 Garganey Rd, is selling with $600,000 to $640,000 price hopes.
“Every poor decision that the state government has made compared to every other state in Australia has been magnified and it’s been homeowners that have felt the brunt,” he said.
High inflation fanned the cost of living crisis, making it even harder to save for a deposit, he said.
“The interest rate reductions are welcome because it’s been the only positive messaging for the property market for 18 months,” Mr Riddle said.
“It will start to shift mindset and hopefully create positive conversations about money being more affordable to enter the property market.
“But as long as the government keeps running the state the way it is, anything positive will be negated by a system that’s just taxing and draining money from hardworking people.”
Mr Riddle said while the data shows the median house value is 4 per cent lower, year on year, it doesn’t show the people who can’t sell their home who have cut more than 10 per cent off their asking price to try and find a buyer.
“Where it’s out of whack is the people that aren’t ultimately wealthy have been forced to put property on the market in unfavourable times because they can’t actually afford to hold it.”
