Aussie hot spots too dangerous to live by 2090, and why Melbourne and Hobart could come up trumps: Climate Council

A heat map of what Australia could look like by 2090 if no action is taken: Source Climate Council of Australia

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The rise of “lethal heat” hitting pockets of Australia has been forecast to drive a “reverse migration” from the nation’s north to its south, starting in as little as five years.

The warning comes as Climate Council research has revealed Australia’s hottest electorates today, and those that could be facing hundreds of super-hot days of more than 35 degrees Celsius every year by 2090.

The data shows there will be dozens of extreme heat days every year in most parts of northern Australia by 2090 in a worst-case scenario for climate change, with the Northern Territory electorate of Lingiari facing 235 each year — including 106 days above 40 degrees.

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By contrast, the Franklin electorate on the southern end of Tasmania will average just one day above 35 degrees, and the Flinders electorate to Melbourne’s south east would have just 10 days.

The huge difference may encourage Australians to migrate from the north to the south, seeking more comfortable environs, while real estate experts revealed energy efficient home prices are set to take off by the end of this decade.

In NSW, the Bradfield electorate in the Greater Sydney area would go from five days above 35 degrees on average at present to 21 by 2090.

In the Bennelong voting region it would surge from six to 23.

And in Western Sydney, the seats of Fowler and Blaxland which are home to the some of the lowest incomes by electorate in the nation, the number of super hot days are expected to triple.

The seat of Parkes would become NSW’s hottest, with a whopping 120 days above 35 degrees.

The Climate Council heat maps reveal which areas could be recording the biggest increase in days above 35 degrees by 2090 if the world follows Donal Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” approach.

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How the nation would look if Australia and the world maintains its current plans and policies to address climate change.

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The seat of Casey in Melbourne’s south east is expected to more than quadruple its number of hot days from three to 14, while Goldstein in the wealthy bayside area of the Victorian capital will jump from seven to 20.

But the Mallee region along the Murray river in the north west of the state will be its hottest electorate, with 58 days above 35 degrees by 2090.

In Queensland, the Brisbane electorate will surge 12-fold from two days above 35 degrees to 24, while the number of nights above 25 degrees will shoot from one to 33.

There will be similar surges in areas like the seat of Ryan, which will escalate until up to 30 days at 35 degrees-plus by 2090, and 20 nights above 25.

But the Kennedy electorate is facing up to 214 days over 35 degrees, up from 110 days at present, while the Maranoa region will go from 91 super hot days to 172.

In South Australia the data shows the seat of Grey will be the hottest by 2090, with 123 days above 35 degrees Celsius — compared to a 69-day annual average today.

In Western Australia, the Durack electorate is expected to hit 225 days of the year at more than 35 degrees Celsius by 2090 if no measures are put in place to curb climate change — up from 138 at present.

The areas likely to see the biggest increases in the number of days above 35 each year, if immediate and more specific action is taken to address climate change.

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The nation’s politicians are also likely to feel the heat, with temperatures on 27 days each year rising above 35 degrees by 2090 — compared to six at present.

Climate Councillor professor David Karoly said he was aware of Bureau of Meteorology staff who had already relocated to Tasmania in anticipation of rising temperatures on the mainland, as had well-known winery Brown Brothers.

Prof Karoly is expecting more Australians to do so in the future, with Australia increasingly likely to face the worst case scenario predicted in the Climate Council of Australia’s new research, as a result of global political moves by the likes of Donald Trump accommodating a “drill, baby, drill” attitude toward fossil fuels.

In the future he said Tasmania and Victoria were likely to become more appealing for those planning for housing long term, while semi-coastal areas far enough back from potential risks caused by rising sea levels could be increasingly in demand around the country.

However, he acknowledged that some people would remain more motivated to remain near family or seeking to hang onto coastal views, than to relocate for “science-based” reasons.

Those who chose to tough it out in the worst hot spots were more likely to find sporting pursuits would be relegated to dawn and after sunset, while outdoor work would require airconditioned vehicles nearby.

The number of superhot days are expected to rise in the coming decades, no matter what interventions take place into climate change.

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There are dramatic changes possible across Queensland if the worst-case scenario plays out.

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He added that the nation’s only real defence at this point was to slash or end exports of coal and natural gas, as the fossil fuels Australia shipped offshore accounted for double the amount of emissions produced by our own population.

Climate Council chief executive Amanda McKenzie said the result of Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” attitude would be for large parts of Australia to “grill, baby, grill” — with the chance more households will become reliant on solar technology and design in peak heat scenarios.

“Heat puts enormous pressure on Australia’s ageing coal-fired power stations; you wouldn’t expect a 40-year-old car to keep running smoothly, and we can’t rely on these ageing stations to deliver during extreme heat,” Ms McKenzie said.

“Retrofitting homes and buildings for energy efficiency and installing rooftop solar backed up by home batteries is a no-brainer—it cuts pollution and energy bills, as well as keeping families comfortable year-round.

“Research suggests people are left without power for 3.5 times longer on days over 35 degrees than on days below that threshold. This is a growing challenge, as the heat map shows — the number of record hot days are set to increase in coming decades.”

Brendan Condon, who founded Australia’s most sustainable housing development in Victoria’s Cape Patterson, said it wasn’t just rising temperatures, but humidity that would change the way Australians live.

Mr Condon warned there was a point where temperatures would be beyond what humans could tolerate and when these occurred with high levels of humidity our bodies would be unable to sweat to cool down.

The Cape at Cape Patterson is regarded as Australia’s most sustainable housing estate with homes often reaching energy efficiency scores as high as 8 or 9, and some hitting 10.

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The result could be “lethal heat”, that could drive people out of the nation’s hottest, most humid regions to its southerly areas.

“It will be driven by increasingly humid and uncomfortable summers in the north of Australia,” Mr Condon said.

“But climate change could drive a reverse migration, where people who have been seeking those nice, sunny and comfortable and warm conditions for the past few decades, will, with the increasing heat and humidity having a real impact on human health, we may see a reverse migration to those zones in Australia that will show a greater resistance to warming.”

He added that he was already consulting with housing groups in some of Australia’s hottest regions about how they would cope with rising temperatures in the near future — and said that in addition to rising temperatures, rising humidity would be problematic in the country’s north.

A home in Casey, Canberra, has its energy efficiency disclosed in its online listing.

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How the Canberra property looks from the street.

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Real Estate Institute of Australia director Jacob Caine is spearheading plans for real estate professionals to better understand energy efficiency in homes and said he too was expecting climate change to drive shifts in where Australians wanted to live — with Victoria and Tasmania in a position to draw people away from NSW and Queensland.

In Canberra, where energy efficiency disclosures have been mandatory when selling a home for a number of years, Mr Caine said there had already been a double-digit increase in values for homes that were more efficient.

He added that he was expecting mandatory disclosures to be implemented around the country “before the end of the decade”, raising the prospect that values could soar for energy efficient homes across the nation.

But New Energy Thinking energy efficiency consultant Richard Keech warned Australians were already being let down by the nation’s energy rating scheme, which covered the design intent of a home — not what was achieved.

A home with missing insulation at its edges that would allow heat to enter. Source: Richard Keech.

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While seven-star energy efficiency was now mandatory across most of the country under the National Construction Code, Mr Keech said many new home builds were falling well short due to insulation and design issues.

One of the most common was where homes did not have an eve that overhangs its exterior walls, which effectively makes it impossible to get complete insulation coverage at the point where wall and roof intersect unless specialised building methods were used.

He noted that even a 5 per cent gap in that coverage could result in a 50 per cent reduction in insulation performance, and said better use of building surveyors trained to look for these issues could be vital in ensuring Australians were able to cope with rising temperatures.

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