Future Victoria: How homes across the state have changed since 2000, and what they could look like in 2050

2025: What Metricon’s new Lumiere display home looks like, located in Mt Waverley.

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Three-storey houses, car-free streets and even giant centralised solar batteries are among the “dramatic” changes headed to Victoria’s new housing estates by 2050.

It’s even possible nature strips could be folded into front yards as developers search for cost-effective ways to keep the great Australian dream alive.

Villawood Properties founder and executive director Rory Costelloe said the biggest shift on the horizon for Melbourne was taller houses.

With government priorities moving to increased density, Mr Costelloe said the way many new estates on the urban fringe would soon create clusters of higher density housing was with houses and townhouses at up to three-storeys and apartment complexes of up to eight stories.

They are likely to be centralised around key amenities including transport and shopping precincts, but increasingly also around parks and wetlands that were once premium spots reserved for families with bigger budgets.

“These homes will have less private open space, so they need that public space,” Mr Costelloe said.

And as affordable blocks of land approach the limit of how small they can get without significant change to planning regulations, he doesn’t think it will be long before we start to see “dramatic” changes happen.

MELBOURNE MEDIAN HOME PRICES 2000-2050

January 2000: $175,000 (house)

January 2000: $172,500 (unit)

January 2025: $860,000 (house)

January 2025: $612,000 (unit)

Potential 2050: $3.366m (house)

Potential 2050: $1.559m (unit)

Historic figures courtesy PropTrack, projected growth equates to home values repeating the performance of the past 25 years.

“In the past 25 years we have just gotten more compact, but we can’t get any more compact now, so in the next two decades it’s just more acceleration of medium density and that will be quite rapid,” Mr Costelloe said.

FLASHBACK: What Metricon’s Belair display home looked like in 2000-2002. Picture: Supplied

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Other major changes his firm is already rolling out or investigating are scrapping rear fences where homes back onto a green space, such as a linear park, building extra homes alongside central amenities that visiting family and friends of estate residents can use, and even moving the footpath to the road side of nature strips as a way to extend front gardens.

Other possibilities include fewer streets with cars parked in front of homes and more car-free pockets of housing estates, with narrower streets and more greenery as developers explore centralised carparking — similar to what is seen in Europe and New York.

“That allows for far more efficient use of space,” Mr Costelloe said.

2016: The Sentosa display home by Metricon.

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And while most new housing areas would add footy and cricket fields today, but as migration rises it’s likely more estates will add infrastructure for sports like hockey and soccer.

Metricon design director Adrian Popple said the changes to estates would come with changes to the way we lived, as well.

Garages are likely to be removed from floorplans and the space absorbed back into home builds as owners choose to park in driveways, or in nearby allotments if Mr Costelloe’s predictions prove accurate.

Mr Popple said families could soon find themselves sleeping three storeys above ground, and spending most of their day in living zones two levels up, with frosted glass replacing traditional windows as privacy and vertical living compete.

MELBOURNE TYPICAL NEW HOUSE SIZES

2008

Land size: 520sq m

House size: 253sq m

Open space: 262sq m

2024

Land size: 350sq m

House size: 231sq m

Open space: 95sq m

Potential 2050

Land size: 300-325sq m*

House size: 225-243.75sq m

Open space: 75-81.25sq m

*Functional minimum land sizes for mass volume house blocks with current technology, and engineering/design standards, assumes maximum house size possible under current regulations

Source: Oliver Hume

It’s also likely we’ll see less glazing overall, as great demands for energy efficiency drive the use of more thermally efficient materials to avoid heat loss and gain.

In May last year Victoria moved to a seven-star energy efficiency minimum standard under the National Construction Code. By 2050, Mr Popple said he expected it would have advanced to at least eight stars, possibly even nine or 10, which is close to the level needed for almost self-sustaining housing with solar and battery power.

2050? What AI tool Grok generated a typical Melbourne display house could look like in 25 years. Picture: Grok/X

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“The battery side of things is a bit limited today, and that will be the next side of things we will see grow and become more factored into our home designs,” he said.

At an estate level, Villawood are already using a microgrid in their Rathdowne estate in Wollert where a series of townhouses are fitted with solar panels and connected to a centralised solar battery in order to both reduce energy bills and feed more electricity back into the grid.

Such systems can be further supplemented by solar gained from centralised hubs built for residents in more forward thinking developments.

2025: A look inside the kitchens in a Lumiere display home, active today.

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Villawood already has 10 such residents’ clubs in operation, offering everything from gyms to swimming pools, tennis courts and cafes, and believe they will become increasingly prevalent as a desire to build social cohesion in new estates rises.

Where more traditional, larger family homes do continue to be built — Mr Popple said it was likely there would be an increasing focus on multi-generational living as families looked to spread the cost of housing.