Qld’s baby boom suburbs pushing up property prices

Families are forking out thousands of dollars more to secure a dream home in Queensland’s baby boom suburbs, where intense competition is driving up property prices.

An analysis by KPMG reveals a demographic divide is reshaping the real estate market, with the nappy valley city fringe suburbs thriving as births outnumber deaths by a staggering ratio of 14 to one, while the tombstone towns of the older coastal and regional areas lose nearly one resident every day.

Extraordinary growth in Ipswich’s emerging communities was led by Ripley, where there were 367 births compared to just 26 deaths last year, creating surging demand for family-sized homes.

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Springfield Lakes and Redbank Plains also recorded strong ratios of 7:1, with Coomera on the Gold Coast (6.5:1) and Burdell-Mount Low outside Townsville (6.35:1) following closely.

Younger homebuyers flocked to these greenfield growth areas for their affordable house-and-land packages and family-focused amenities, pushing up property values and intensifying demand for infrastructure.

PropTrack data shows house prices in Ripley have surged 13.6 per cent over the past year to a median of $718,000, meaning families are paying nearly $86,000 more than last year to secure a home.

Property expert and JLF Group CEO John Fitzgerald said Ripley’s population was expected to grow substantially in the coming decade.

JLF Group owners James (left) and John (right) Fitzgerald for QBW. Picture: Nigel Hallett

“With $21m committed by the State Government to unlock more land through road infrastructure, these areas offer the perfect mix of affordability, growing infrastructure, and job opportunities,” Mr Fitzgerald said.

Meanwhile, Queensland’s older coastal and regional suburbs are grappling with stark reversals, as deaths far outpace births, raising questions about long-term growth and housing demand. Bribie Island recorded 303 deaths last year compared to just 84 births, marking a dramatic 3.6:1 ratio.

Other suburbs in decline include Rothwell-Kippa-Ring (300 deaths, 152 births), Maryborough (266 deaths, 148 births), Cleveland (209 deaths, 94 births), and Labrador (258 deaths, 184 births).

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Experts warn these ageing communities risk stagnation unless targeted reinvestment revitalises infrastructure and amenities to attract younger buyers or cater to retirees.

Retirement Living Council director Daniel Gannon said the state faced a “sobering outlook” as its aged population increases.

Between now and 2040, the number of Queenslanders aged over 75 is set to surge by more than 83 per cent.

“This silver tsunami will redefine the Sunshine State forever,” Mr Gannon said.

“Unfortunately, the housing crisis will remain in logjam if rightsizing options aren’t available for older Queenslanders, which also has downstream impacts on younger homebuyers desperate to get into the market or buy a bigger home.

“This issue is exacerbated in smaller communities.”

Retirement Living Council executive director Daniel Gannon

Vacancy rates for retirement villages outside Brisbane were at four per cent, representing a market effectively operating at full capacity.

“Southeast Queensland in particular remains one of the fastest-growing destinations for retirees, which means we’re expecting incresaed strain on the sector,” Mr Gannon said.

“Government has a big role to play, but we need to see reduced red tape when it comes to planning and regulation, allowing developers to appropriately fast-track new builds.”

KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said suburbs where deaths outpaced births mostly fell into three categories.

KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley

“Locations like Rothwell-Kippa-Ring, which have a concentration of aged-care facilities, have a higher number of registered deaths than registered births,” Mr Rawnsley said.

“Then there are coastal locations popular with retirees, such as Bribie Island, Maryborough, and Cleveland.

“In locations like Caloundra-Kings Beach and Sandgate-Shorncliffe, limited housing development has prevented younger people from entering the housing market, resulting in fewer babies being born in these areas.”

Falling property values reflect these shifts.

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PropTrack data shows house prices in Bribie Island fell 16.4 per cent over the past year to a median of $700,000.

Bribie Island agency principal Claire Uttley said the region was ripe for generational change, with families increasingly drawn to the same attributes that have long attracted retirees. “Bribie has the most incredible community spirit. It’s kind of like a country town in terms of safety and has a more chilled-out lifestyle. It’s the kind of place where kids can just go out, kick a footy, and you don’t have to worry. That’s a big draw,” Ms Uttley said.

She noted an influx of Melbourne buyers in recent months, seeking family homes priced between $750,000 and $1m as well as luxury builds topping $2m in Banksia Beach.

Jordan Strudwick with his partner Jana and son Noah at their home in Ripley. Picture: Liam Kidston.

STRUD Property managing director Jordan Strudwick said Ipswich’s “affordability advantage” had underpinned its growth, with young families and owner-occupiers comprising about 80 per cent of buyers.

Ripley, with its new builds and some rare quarter-acre blocks, had been a standout.

“Many young families are relocating from Brisbane, probably even more than interstate buyers — a segment that was pumping for a while,” Mr Strudwick said.

“If you are a couple making $150,000 or $200,000 a year, Ipswich is arguably one of the few places in southeast Queensland where you can still afford to get a nice home for $800,000 to $900,000.”

Bribie Island real estate agent Claire Uttley

Although competition had eased since the pandemic boom, buyers remained highly active, he said.

“We’ve had properties with an $850,000 price guide sell for $900,000. Buyers need to accept that Ipswich has become very desirable, and with that has come the price growth.”

While baby boom suburbs show continued resilience, ageing areas like Bribie Island could benefit from reinvestment to attract a broader mix of buyers and ensure long-term viability.

“When you get a different influx of people, you have a fresh set of eyes and excitement about new opportunities,” Ms Uttley said.

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