A massive shift is underway across Australia’s sizzling property market, with the data throwing up 8 key real estate trends to watch in 2025.
The Property Outlook Report 2025 has been released naming eight key areas to watch across 2025 in both residential and commercial property.
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Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee.
1. Rate cuts in 2025
Report co-author Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee said financial markets think the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates twice in the second half of the year.
But, she said, that prediction could change depending on how inflation and the economy play out.
“The most important is inflation. While it’s now back within the RBA’s target range, there are risks it could rise again. One big unknown is what happens in the United States. With Donald Trump winning the presidential election, this will boost government spending and put high taxes on Chinese goods. This could push up prices worldwide, including in Australia, making it harder for the RBA to cut rates.”
Ray White Property Outlook Report 2025 says RBA will follow global rate cuts in 2025.
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Ms Conisbee said the health of the economy would also be crucial for any rates movement in 2025.
“If people start spending less in shops, house prices fall significantly, or unemployment begins to rise, the RBA might need to cut rates sooner than planned. They’ll be watching these signs closely throughout the year.”
She said there will be rate cuts in 2025 but their timing and size will depend on how inflation behaves, what happens to the global economy and how the Aussie economy holds up across 2025.
2: House price rises to continue but slowing
Ms Conisbee says there are signs that the Australian housing market is cooling into 2025, but the picture varied across the country with Perth, South-East Queensland and Adelaide still strong and Sydney and Melbourne slowing considerably and almost flat.
“This pattern is likely to continue in early 2025, driven by several factors. More homeowners are feeling the strain of high mortgage payments, and we’re seeing an increase in property listings as some decide to sell. This higher supply of homes for sale could put downward pressure on prices in some areas.”
But she said strong population growth, high building costs, and high expectation of rate cuts in 2025 should prevent any significant drop in house prices.
Property prices were expected to be supported by continued strong population growth.
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Strong population growth created “a natural floor for how far prices might fall”.
“This is particularly true in Perth and Brisbane where growth remains very strong, but is also the case in Melbourne and Sydney where international migration will remain strong, although potentially at lower levels compared to 2024.”
She said the cost of building new homes has not come down so there are fewer dwellings being built which pushes more buyers to existing homes that in turn supports high prices.
“The outlook suggests a period of modest price growth or stability rather than significant falls. Markets that have already slowed, like Sydney and Melbourne, might stay flat until rate cuts begin. Meanwhile, cities with stronger economic conditions like Perth could continue to see some growth, though likely at a slower pace than in 2024. The key timing to watch will be when interest rates start to fall, as this could mark a turning point for price growth in the larger markets.”
Ray White senior data analyst Atom Go Tian.
3: Shake up in luxury markets
Ray White senior data analyst Atom Go Tian expects shifts across Australia’s premium property markets that is the top 5 per cent of the market in each region.
“The pecking order of Australia’s premium property markets is experiencing its most dramatic realignment in years,” he said. “with traditional hierarchies being challenged and new players climbing to the fore.”
Luxury refers to houses in the top 5 per cent of the market.
Sydney still has a major lead on other markets sitting above $4m across its top 5 per cent, despite having the slowest growth rate in years, but other areas like regional Queensland’s coastal markets have also surged.
“The Gold Coast, with an impressive 50 per cent growth over five years, has finally achieved what many predicted: overtaking Melbourne as the second most expensive luxury market,” he said with its top 5 per cent of houses priced at $2.54m compared to Melbourne’s $2.51m.
He said the Sunshine Coast looks to be following suit in by the end of 2025, having seen a 48.73 per cent five-year growth rate, with its top 5 per cent price now at $2.37m.
Brisbane, Perth – both with the top 5pc over the $2m mark after 5-year growth of 55 and 53pc respectively were rising fast, as well as Adelaide which has its top 5 per cent above $1.8m off 5-year growth of 56pc.
“Looking ahead, the market appears to be trending toward a new baseline, with all major cities except Darwin expected to reach or exceed the $2m mark for luxury properties.”
4: Emergence of the Golden Arc
Mr Tian said the property restructuring is seeing the creation of a “Golden Arc”, stretching from the Gold Coast to Brisbane to the Sunshine Coast which will emerge stronger in 2025 – all three having overtaken Melbourne in the last two years.
“The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have established themselves as Australia’s second and third most expensive housing markets, with remarkably similar geometric mean house prices of $1.18m and $1.14m respectively. Both regions have also witnessed an identical 76 per cent increase in prices over the past five years.”
“Brisbane, while still more affordable at a geometric mean house price of $996,000, is also showing signs of joining its coastal counterparts to complete the Golden Arc. The city has the second-highest five-year growth rate of 83.5 per cent, trailing only Adelaide.”
Sydney’s average house price rose to $1.59m in 2024, staying ahead of the pack, but other cities are chasing strongly.
A mid market was now developing across Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide within a 17 per cent price range of each other, he said.
“Five years ago, these markets were spread across an 80 per cent price range. This compression suggests that Perth and Adelaide may soon overtake Melbourne in terms of house prices, further contributing to the formation of a distinct mid-market cluster between $850,000 and $1m.”
“In summary, we can expect several key developments. Perth and Adelaide may surpass Melbourne in price, reinforcing the shift in the mid-market cluster. The Golden Arc is likely to emerge with Brisbane joining the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast as premium markets. Finally, Sydney’s isolation at the top is expected to widen, further emphasising the “two-speed” nature of the market.”
5: Regional Australia’s $1m club
Mr Tian said the million-dollar club was set to rise significantly across regional Australia, having already gone from just two areas five years ago to 20 locations in 2024 – with four more on track to hit it in 2025 and a further seven serious contenders for seven-figure medians through the year.
“The Sunshine Coast Hinterland, currently at $972,787, is projected to reach $1.05m, supported by an impressive 8 per cent average annual growth over the past decade,” he said.
“Both Ormeau-Oxenford in the Gold Coast and Newcastle in regional New South Wales, currently hovering around $960,000, are expected to reach $1.03m, driven by consistent
7 per cent annual growth rates. Lake Macquarie-East completes this emerging group, with
current house prices of $955,128 expected to rise to $1.02m in the coming year.”
Four more areas in regional Australia will have $1m medians in 2025, with seven more on the verge of joining the club.
The seven other areas that are serious contenders for strong price growth into the one million mark have current medians around the $850,000 to $910,000 level with decade-long growth rates around 5 to 8pc – including Augusta-Margaret River-Busselton in Western Australia’s Bunbury region which will be regional WA’s first in the elite club, and several other contenders across the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast as well regional NSW.
Key features of these growth prospects are waterfront and oceanside locations, satellite cities or areas within commuting distance of major metropolitan centres, and lifestyle appeal.
Ray White Group head of research Vanessa Rader.
6: Retail set to lead commercial property performance in 2025
When it comes to commercial property, the retail sector is set to shine brightest in 2025, according to Ray White Group head of research Vanessa Rader, “a significant
shift from recent years where industrial assets dominated”.
She said retail assets had already led total returns for two consecutive quarters with a 2.8 per cent total gain in the latest results, making up 41.1 per cent of all commercial transaction numbers in late 2024 – a massive gain considering its long term average is 28 per cent.
”Despite ongoing discussion about the threat of online retail, physical stores have shown remarkable resilience. Online spending accounts for just 11.4 per cent of total retail transactions and has remained relatively stable over recent years.”
The retail sector remains strong especially across metropolitan areas and despite the online threat. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Sharon Smith
Its strength was in metro markets, she said, with neighbourhood and subregional centres also showing resilience in the right retail mix, with food, supermarkets and services driving consumer spending.
“Limited new supply against strong population growth has driven improved occupancy and rental performance in select markets. The retail landscape is also evolving, with entertainment offerings likely to emerge as a key component of successful centres, creating lifestyle destinations rather than pure shopping venues.”
She said “investor attention is clearly pivoting towards retail assets. The sector’s ability to adapt and evolve, combining traditional brick-and-mortar retail with emerging entertainment offerings and online integration, positions it as the commercial property sector to watch in 2025.”
7: The death of the secondary office market
Ms Rader sees a structural shift underway in the office market, “driven by evolving tenant demands and intensifying environmental, social and governance (ESG) pressures”.
She said B-grade and lower quality assets would struggle without significant capital investment.
“If future take up of space echoes results seen in the post pandemic era, vacancies for secondary assets across all Australian markets will reach 22 per cent (from current 15.9 per cent) in the next five years, even considering consistent withdrawal of stock.”
“Prime markets however will continue to thrive, vacancies will move downward from the current 13.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent by late 2029, opening up potential for new development.”
End-of-trip facilities are now par for the course to attract top tier tenants.
She said significant capex was needed to bring older assets up to scratch, given tenant demands for end-of-trip facilities, sophisticated airconditioning systems and smart building technology.
Lenders were also seeing this with a looming credit squeeze for the secondary sector set to force some owners to look at alternative uses, including conversion to residential or mixed use “where planning regulations permit”.
“The secondary office sector faces a turning point. Buildings unable to meet rising environmental standards and tenant expectations risk becoming stranded assets. The market is likely to see an increase in opportunistic investors targeting these assets for conversion or redevelopment, particularly in locations where alternative uses can unlock greater value.”
8: Private investors to prop up the commercial market for another year
Ms Rader also expects a dynamic shift via private investors across commercial property in 2025, with “anticipated interest rate reductions expected to reignite transaction activity across all sectors”.
“Private investors, armed with improved debt serviceability and renewed confidence, are likely to lead this resurgence. The expected easing of monetary policy should create a more favourable environment for leveraged buyers, potentially driving increased competition for quality assets as debt costs moderate.”
Targets include metro retail assets underpinned by strong trade area demographics and essential service offerings.
Service stations and retail centres will attract strong private investor interest in 2025.
“Neighbourhood centres anchored by supermarkets, combined with healthcare services and daily needs retail, will likely remain highly sought after.”
Across industrial assets, private investors were increasingly focusing on the smaller end of town such as industrial units and last-mile logistics facilities, particularly those with value-add potential, she said.
“2025 could mark a turning point for the office sector as the market finally adjusts to hybrid working patterns.”
“Childcare centres and service stations, delivering annual rental increases with long lease terms, remain highly sought after by yield-focused investors.”
The ability to move quickly on opportunities would become increasingly valuable in 2025, she said, “as the market transitions to a more favourable lending environment”.
